SPEEDY SHORT SALE....REALLY?

Rarely do I get my hopes up that our federal government can have much real impact on the distressed property market,  but the article below gives me some cautious hope.

As most of you know, I've been working in the distressed property marketplace since about Spring of 2008 - specifically with Short Sales.  It's been interesting, to say the least!

It's common knowledge that shorts sales provide an opportunity for an upside down homeowner to try and do the right thing - given our current circumstances.  Contrary to popular belief, and hyped up news stories, most of our distressed homeowners are in that situation because of circumstances beyond their control - and exacerbated by this real estate market.  Short sales provide a dignified way of disposing of the property while preserving the most financial return for the lender.

With money at stake, you would think that the lenders would be jumping up and down to get these short sales done; but alas, it's never fast enough for the likes of me!

Fortunately we have a couple of legislators who are trying to inspire these lenders to do the right thing....for all our sake.  Take a read, and hope like heck it makes a difference.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/bill-to-speed-up-short-sales-process-and-avoid-foreclosure-2012-02-20

As always we're here to answer your real estate questions.....and we're happy to speak before any group you know of who may be interested in general real estate information, distressed property information or investing information.

Ciao,

Amy

NOW'S THE TIME - REALLY!

It's just the nature of being a seller that drives us to want to try and "time" the market.  It's a difficult task, even for the professional Realtor.  The timing of the housing bubble burst caught nearly everyone by surprise.

But what's ahead of all of us is so predictable and I want my clients ahead of the curve on this one.

We've blogged previously about the MERS and Robo-signing mess that contributed, in it's own way, to the housing mess that we're in.  Some of you may have seen the 60 Minutes segment that was done on robo-signing. (If you haven't seen it, just go to YouTube and search 60 Minutes Robo-signing for an eye opening education).

The long and the short of it is, the government has been negotiating with the lenders for a monetary settlement that is supposed to ease the pain of those in foreclosure (don't hold your breath!).  But while they've been negotiating, there has been a moratorium on banks placing foreclosed homes into the market place for sale.

All that good news you were hearing last year - it had a lot to do with a lower level of inventory because we were missing those foreclosed properties.  It was as good as it could have gotten for those of you who chose to sell.

So here's the deal for those of you who have been holding off;  the settlement is very near.....read VERY again!  And once it's done, our friends the lenders will be right back to releasing those foreclosed homes into the market and competing on price with your home. They have 49 months worth of inventory. I've already seen evidence of their plans.  And what I'm seeing is about a 5 fold increase.

Please listen to me; if you have any inkling about selling this year - NOW IS THE TIME.  Get in ahead of these foreclosures that we know are coming.  It's the best opportunity you'll have to get your highest price possible for the near future.  And of course you'll be able to take advantage of the Spring Buying Season - the peak season for real estate sales.

I've included the link below for your reading pleasure.  The reference source is Realty Trac, one of the most respected sources for information on the amount of distressed and foreclosed property affecting our market.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/foreclosure-activiy-increased-january-activity-down-compared-to-last-year-2012-02-15

Of course, if you have any questions, don't hesitate to call me.  Or if you have an organization, club or group of friends that would like a presentation about the state of the real estate market, or short sales or investing, I'm happy to be your go to gal - free of charge.

Choi for now,
Amy

FINALLY - Vindicated!

Today, I have to tell you I finally feel vindicated.  "And by whom," you ask?  None other than Wells Fargo Bank.

Nearly four years ago, and in an ongoing dialogue, I have been telling you and all my clients that it's going to take a while for this market to get to the place where it can recover. 

Some have said this down market would be over in 6 months, a year, the next quarter, the next reporting cycle, etc, etc, etc.  Those folks looked at me like I was nuts!  What a negative Realtor, they said!

In spite of being called negative, a doom & gloomer, and who know's what else (?), I stuck to my guns and research, telling my clients we probably won't see a recovery until about 2022 - 2025.

There.....I said it again.  And guess who else is saying it.....Yes, Wells Fargo Bank.  Their prediction; 2021.  I think that's close enough for me.

So why have I hung on to those far distant years?  Because; we have about 49 months of shadow inventory to clean up, our unemployment has not significantly changed (we need to drop about 4 points there), and most importantly because we are in the middle of a down cycle in our population.

As many of you have heard me say, we Baby Boomers (all 84 million of us) have aged out of our primary consumption years.  We don't care about the latest cars, clothes, new floor plans, or restaurants.  And coming right behind us would be Generation X, with a whopping population count of 42 million!  That's right - one half the number of all of us who invented the Mini-mansion.  So, who would we be selling all those houses with stairs to?.......The Echo Boomers, Gen Y or the Millenials, 'cause after all, there's about 75 million of them - nearly a replacement of us, the Baby Boomers.

But here's the challenge; the Echo Boomers are not the Baby Boomers.  They are taking longer to finish school.  They want to be passionate about their work, so they tend to be more patient waiting for the right career (think Masters Degree selling coffee at Starbucks), they don't necessarily even like our big box houses and would prefer a more urban lifestyle with less square footage and a smaller carbon footprint.

All that means, delay, delay, delay the recovery.  I know, I hate the news myself.

But here's my philosophy; you can't plan properly if you don't know.  So rather than call me a Negative Ninny, or a Doom and Gloomer, I hope you'll take this information and plan accordingly.  And if you don't believe me......will you listen to all those high paid economists at Wells Fargo?

Until next time......



HOW DO I SAY THIS?

It seems as if everywhere you look, there's nothing but good news about the real estate market.  Even at the conference I attended most recently in Phoenix, all the buzz was about how the market is healed. 

Now that started to give me pause, because the attendees at this conference are the cream of the crop in real estate - the top 3% of agents in the nation.  And I know you all thought I was just a Negative Ninny four years ago when I said this downturn would last much longer than just a season.  So, NEVER wanting to be wrong, I had to come back and put this information into context, because this "feeling" everyone was having just didn't seem to square up with the numbers.

First of all, we've come off a year that included a Foreclosure Moratorium.  That moratorium has allowed about 49 months worth of inventory to stockpile.  It's commonly referred to in the press as the Shadow Inventory.  These are homes in some stage of foreclosure; everything from being 60 days late to being sold as a vacant house on your street.

Secondly, many of the Realtors I talked to in Phoenix were reporting they were having low inventory, multiple offers and sometimes offers over asking price.  How could that be, I wondered.  A closer look tells the story.

Many of these agents were from some of the hardest hit states in the nation; places like Florida, Arizona, California and Ohio.  In some cases, real estate has dropped up to 87% from it's high point in '05 and '06.  It's no surprise that investors are coming and grabbing up these deals.  That combined with that moratorium I spoke about - and you can see how it would "feel" like everything in just ducky!

What we've known for quite a while, though, is that this is going to be a see-saw recovery.  Up and then down and then up again.  And we all know that real estate is local.  So I thought it would be helpful if you could see exactly what's going on in our market.

Here's a map of the 6 major zip codes in the Mid-Willamette Valley.  As you can see, we've got some work to do here in the Valley before we start talking recovery. 

While this map is a little tough to take, the good news is our real estate market never fell like values did in the states of Arizona, California or Florida.  And besides - we're Oregonians....tough to the core! 

Amy's 2012 Real Estate Predictions

2012 Predictions!

Can I just say, 2011 was not my favorite year....not at all. But it's in the books, and I'd say as a benchmark, we've got some good things to look forward to in 2012. So lets focus on real estate!

1. We have historically low interest rates. If you're thinking of buying or refinancing - do it!

2. Nationally, home prices should be stabilizing. Locally we are expecting another dip in prices, because of our large dependence on government and our school district for employment.

3. The number of sales per year seems to have stabilized. We seem to have found the normal "set point" for the Mid-Willamette Valley.

4. We will see rising inventories as foreclosures again become more of a force in the marketplace.

5. Distressed properties will be an increasing part of the sales pie.

6. Improved Short Sale processes at the lender level will help even more families avoid foreclosure.

7. Homeownership rates will continue to fall, providing an opportunity for investors to purchase and provide housing for local families.

8. Foreign and domestic investors will make up about 25% of the buying market.

9. First time homebuyers will make up a signifcant portion of the market.

10. Buyers are still looking for a bargain; both in price and presentation.


All in all, we expect more of the same. In a way, that's good news. I'm often asked, "what is it going to take to turn this around?" My answer is always the same, "jobs." And that's what it is. No one is going to risk buying a home if they're worried about their job.

We're also advising our clients that given where we are, any real estate decision needs to be put in the context of about a 15 - 20 year plan. And No, I'm not kidding. It's really going to take that long.

Hopefully this gives you some insight into what to expect. We're here if you have questions, and we want to put the word out that we're available to come speak to any group who might want more insight into the Valley real estate market or the in's and out's of Short Sales.

Please don't hesitate to call. We're here to advise in all things real estate!

Happy New Year!

Housing Market: What’s Behind and What’s Ahead

 

The housing market in 2011 was a year that saw changing trends and breaking records.

Mortgage Rates

15- and 30-year fixed mortgages hit record lows during 2011. via money.CNN.com

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan averaging 3.91% last week, the lowest in the 40 years of the survey’s history. The average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.21% — also a record low.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain low well into 2012.

Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, commented that “for well-qualified buyers interest rates should be no impediment to home buying in 2012.”

Foreclosures & Loans

There were 14% fewer foreclosure notices served in November year-over-year. via Business Week

The  rate of foreclosure filings slowed considerably in 2011, as banks and servicers responded to the documentation and processing challenges from 2010.

The foreclosure liquidation rate is anticipated to rise next year. via Zillow.com

With the settlement between the states’ attorneys general coalition and the major lenders and servicers coming to a head, Zillow sees an increase “either in conjunction with a settlement… or, alternatively, in the aftermath of the settlement effort falling apart.”

Home Values

The slide in home values since 2008 slowed in 2011. via International Business Times

Zillow projects that home values will fall 35% less this year than in 2010; and the Case-Shiller Home Prices indices show that the rate of decline slowed from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter (from 5.8% to 3.9%).

Home values will likely fall a bit more to finally bottom out in 2012.

Jonathon Miller, president and CEP of Miller Samuel, predicts that the decline will be considerably less than this year.

Home Sales & Starts

In 2011, new single-family home sales are on pace to hit a record low of 301,000. via Business Week

On the flip side, however, existing home sales rose to 4.42 million this fall, the highest in 10 months.

Total home starts (houses and apartments) jumped 9.3% month-over-month. via Internation Business Times

This rise from October to November represents the fastest pace in more than 18 months. Although single-family home construction remains stalled, Fitch Ratings projects a 6.7% gain in residential housing starts next year.

Confidence

The Housing Market Index rose to 21 from last month’s 19. via Mortgage News Daily

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) surveys its members monthly to compile the index. Although not huge, 20 is the highest the index has been since May 2010.

 

 

 

 

Are Home Values Finally Stabilizing?

Zillow Real Estate’s latest market report says maybe

On a year-over-year basis, the Zillow® Home Value index declined 5.1 percent. Zillow reports that “the rate of monthly depreciation has stabilized around -0.2 to -0.3 percent over the last few months.”

Of the 156 metropolitan statistical areas covered by Zillow, while 95 showed monthly depreciation in home values, 39 areas actually saw an increase in monthly home value this past October. Twenty-two (22) areas remained flat.

The nine markets that saw the largest year-over-year home value increases from October 2010 to October 2011?

• Tulsa, OK— one-year price gain of 6.2%
• Oklahoma City, OK — one year price gain of 3.1%
• Lincoln, NE — one year price gain of 2.7%
• Madison, WI — one year price gain of 1.3%
• Honolulu, HI — one year price gain of 1.3%
• Fort Collins, CO — one year price gain of 1.3%
• Fort Myers, FL — one year price gain of 0.4%
• Pittsburgh, PA — one year price gain of 0.4%
• Boulder, CO — one year price gain of 0.2%

Another sign of stabilization is the decline in the foreclosure liquidation rate — at 8.1 out of every 10,000 homes being liquidated as of October, 2011 — down from the all-time high of 10.7 out of every 10,000 homes in October, 2010. That’s a drop of nearly 25 percent.

For more details on the Zillow Home Value Index and the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Report, check out these articles:

• U.S. Home Values Continued Fall in October; Rate of Decline Stabilizes (MarketWatch)
• Real Estate Markets: Top 9 Gainers in 2011 (Huffington Post)
• A Bit of Good Real Estate News? (Realty Times)